Kansas City at Houston

KC is killing us with their improbable wins. I'm sticking with the fade on them in the right situations though as I firmly believe over the long haul we will make more than we lose by fading the worst road team in the league. You see, if you really believe they are THAT bad on the road, which I do, things are going to even out and return to normal over the long haul. The baseball season is as long a haul as we get in sports. The fact that they have notched two road wins in the last three doesn't make me shy away from fading them. Given the expected return to normalcy (KC is terrible on the road), it makes me like the Stros even more tonight. I know, at 2-1 odds, we need to win two for every one we lose to break even, but again, over the long haul, we'll get that and more as KC has lost nearly 8 out of 10 on the road this season, even with their two recent wins. Get this: Over the past two seasons, KC is now 1-24 on the road following a three game span where they won 2 of 3. Yes, they lost 24 out of 25 road games in this situation. Meanwhile, Houston is 14-3 at home following a span in which they lost two of three. Finally, Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - poor power teams (0.9 or less HR's/game) after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games are 33-92 (26%) over the last 5 seasons. Houston here.