Kansas City at Detroit

The Detroit Tigers certainly have not played well over the past few weeks, but they do have Justin Verlander on the mound for this one at home vs. the Kansas City Royals. The Tigers are 90-47 when Verlander steps on the hill as a home favorite. The Royals have managed just 3.6 runs per contest against him in Detroit. The Tigers on the otherhand, have averaged 4.6 runs a game at home when posted as a home favorite this season, so we have a full run in expected value. The Tigers are also 38-16 in Verlander's last 54 starts as a home favorite vs. a winning team, as well as being 19-7 in their last 26 at home vs. a left handed starter. The Royals are not doing much damage recently as a dog where they are 2-5 in their last seven. It doesn't get much worse than Kansas City's 46-102 record in their last 148 games as a road dog, following a win. Make the play on Detroit.