Kansas City at Cleveland

It isn't too often that you’re going to see a road team with a 25-41 record listed as a favorite, but that is what we have in this one. Zack Greinke got off to a tremendous start last year, looking like he was turning into a top 10 pitcher. The problem is that since the big start a year ago, the Royals are just 19-30 when he takes the mound - a worse percentage than their team record over the same period, so he has pitched below the level of an already bad team. The Indians are a much improved team at 26-29 over their last 55, playing much better than a team that started 26-47. The Royals have gotten nothing done on the road as they are just 4-16 in their last 20. Those numbers are hardly something you'd want to back as a road favorite. I'll go with Cleveland in this one.