Houston at Toronto

The Toronto Blue Jays are 3-4, as are the surprising Houston Astros - a team that lost 111 games last season. The Astros may be better, but they have so far to go, avoiding 100 losses will still be a challenge for this team. Toronto will go with Mark Buehrle tonight, and that is a huge plus. There is no pitcher in baseball over the last decade that has owned the mound, and the game pitching at home as a favorite. Buehrle is an amazing 95-43 in this spot, and the ROI when playing on him is just shy of 15%. He is off a road game, allowing no runs, and he will be poised to deliver another gem at home vs. the weak Astros lineup. Make the play on Toronto.