Houston at St. Louis

This one is very chalky, but is it chalky enough? I say no. Chris Carpenter has made 21 starts for the Cards this season and in 19 of them, and adding in the bullpen, the opponents have scored more than two runs in just eight of them. The Astros’ Brian Moehler and the bullpen, have allowed four runs or more in 90% of his starts against a team with a winning record. Those teams with a winning record didn't just score four runs, they have averaged 6.3. The Cards are a hot team as it is winning 15 of their last 18 with opponents scoring less than three runs a game during the 18-game stretch. When Carpenter takes the hill as a chalky favorite of -201 or more, the Cards are 22-2. These numbers certainly show the odds here significantly better than the 2.7-1 needing to lay here. I'll go with the Cards in this one.