Houston at Philadelphia

The Phillies have Cliff lee again, and expect to run all the way to the World Series with their deep and talented rotation. Lee dropped three of his first four starts a year ago, and sometimes takes awhile to get things going. He is considered one of the best in baseball, but in spite of that, his teams were just 14-19 against a -1.5 runline last season. Looking at how Wandy Rodriguez finished the season a year ago, he clearly outpitched Lee by a long shot. Rodriguez allowed 17 total runs in his last 13 starts, and not a single game allowed more than 3. That makes a run and a half here very valuable, so play Houston on the runline.