Houston at Boston

Talented Houston hung tight after getting pounded in Games 2 and 3, then exploded late for a 9-2 Game 4 win. The Astros are 11-5 as a playoff underdog. Starter Framber Valdez is 3-1 in his postseason career with a 3.19 ERA and Houston is 21-8 against AL teams that average 4.9+ runs per game. It's difficult to trust Boston starter Chris Sale against anybody, let alone as a favorite. He has simply been awful his last four starts allowing 11 runs and 17 hits in 11+ innings. In nine career playoff games, Sale has gone 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA. And the Red Sox are 33-46 at home versus AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per contest. Play Houston.