Houston at Atlanta

Houston has dropped three of four. They have surrendered 30 runs in their past two games. Meanwhile Atlanta has won two straight by a combined score of 26-4. The Astros look to Wandy Rodriguez to stop the bleeding but that's not likely. He's 1-7 in his road starts with a 7.43 ERA! Opposing him is Buddy Carlyle who has a 5-3 record (4-2 at home). He's got better numbers across the board than does Rodriguez. Backing up Rodriguez is a horrible pen with a 5.00 ERA and 57% save percentage. Atlanta's pen is very good, especially at home (3.46 ERA and 77% save). While Atlanta doesn't fare that well vs. lefties, Houston's offense is much worse. MLB teams that have scored 9+ runs in two straight games vs. an opponent that has given up 9+ runs in two straight games are 64-26 (71%) over the past five seasons. Houston is a dismal 4-16 this season on the road vs. winning teams and 3-13 on the road after a big loss by 4+ runs. This line is low and we'll take the hot home team vs. the cold weak road club.