Detroit at New York

After one of the most amazing post-All Star runs that we can remember, the Yankees are showing signs of "regressing to the mean." After posting a 25-8 run, they have lost three in a row, allowing 26 runs. Despite that, they are laying a huge line here against a great team that easily beat them yesterday. Detroit is 67-54 (37-26 on the road) and scoring 5.7 runs per game. They crush lefty starters (6.1 runs per game on way to a 24-12) record. The Tigers can win against powerhouse offenses. They are 19-9 the past two seasons vs. AL teams that score 5.7+ runs per game. They have also won 16 of their last 23 vs. AL opponents that hit .285 or better. Yes, Andy Pettite has an advantage over Nate Robertson but it's not huge. With Pettite on the mound the past three seasons, his team has lost 27 of 41 vs. elite opponents (those that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game). Tremendous line value on this underdog.