Detroit at Cleveland

The Tigers are playing well, and always show as an overvalued team when Justin Verlander takes the mound on the road. Verlander has compiled a 90-45 mark as a home favorite and plus money, but he has been negative money on the road as a favorite, and the Tigers have won just 5 of his last 14 starts in the role of a road chalk. Verlander owns a 4.26 ERA against the Tribe - his highest mark vs. any AL team, and is just 9-10 here with an ERA of 5.26. Cleveland will go with rookie phenom Trevor Bauer who has a 1.50 ERA in his lone start. The Tigers are a woeful 3-9 in Verlander's last 12 starts vs. a losing team, while the Tribe owns a 21-10 mark vs. a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Go with Cleveland.