Detroit at Baltimore

The Orioles are 32-20 at home this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game and their defense (3.9 runs per game allowed, 2.7 per game over their last seven games) is head-and-shoulders above Detroit's (4.8 runs per game allowed). The Tigers trot out Buck Farmer who has been a disaster in his three outings this season, allowing 14 earned runs in less than 14 innings pitched. He's opposed by Wei-Yin Chin who has a 2.89 ERA on the year. Since last season, Baltimore is 71-45 vs. losing teams and 84-53 at home. In expected low-scoring games (total under nine), Baltimore is 31-17 this season. Chin is also 19-7 the past two seasons in such games. Take the O's.