Colorado at Atlanta

The Rockies are 9-18 this year on the road against winning teams and 5-21 the past two seasons during second-half play in this situation. They have historically fared very poorly against the Braves. Atlanta has swept the Rockies at home three out of the past four years. They are 10-2 over Colorado overall the past twelve at home. To make it that much harder for Colorado, the Braves send ace John Smoltz to the mound. He's got a 1.98 home ERA and has been on fire of late. In his last three starts he has allowed just 4 BB, 1 HR and 4 earned runs while striking out 21 batters. Holding this line down is the record of Jeff Francis (11-5). But he has been the beneficiary of great run support in his starts. His ERA is decent but not great (4.12). Atlanta has a big bullpen advantage too. They have a home ERA of 3.47 and a save percentage of 77%. The Colorado pen has a road save percentage of just 55%. Yes, Colorado's offense has been hot lately but not as hot as Atlanta's. The Braves are averaging 8.7-runs per game over their last seven. Great pitcher vs. average pitcher in a matchup the home team has historically dominated. We'll back the home club.