Cleveland at Kansas City

We faded CC Sabathia and the Indians vs. Tampa Bay last week and got the win. While he is an excellent pitcher, the Indians on the road have a losing record and a terrible bullpen. That game played out as anticipated with the D-Rays reeling off several late runs after Sabathia sat down to get the win. Here again, we get a decent home team that scores 5.3 runs per game on .295 hitting at home. Cleveland scores 4.9 per game versus left handed starters and their bullpen on the road now has a 4-17 win/loss record. Lefty Mark Redman goes for KC and he's 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA vs. the Indians! He's 5-3 at home. The Royals are off a 15-run performance and teams off a game where they had 17 or more hits, starting a cold pitcher with an ERA over 7.50 over his last 3 starts are 50-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. Also, good offensive teams (5.4+ runs/game) facing a below average starter (ERA 5.70 to 6.20), after allowing 9 runs or more are just 14-28 (33%) over the past decade. Heck, KC is 6-2 vs. Cleveland this year. Cleveland is 12-18 as a road favorite this year. Live home dog here.