Cleveland at Boston

The Red Sox kept the series alive with a big win in game 4 in Cleveland, and the Sox now have the opportunity to finish the series with potentially two games at Fenway. The Sox will wheel out Curt Schilling, who has been a big game pitcher over his career. The Indians counter with Fausto Carmona, who has been their most consistent pitcher this season. These two met in game two, which was supposed to be a classic pitching duel, but it never materialized, as both these starters were gone early. We expect the pitching duel that was missing in game 2, to manifest itself tonight. Carmona and the Indians were 23-7 to the under 9.5 over his last 30 starts in the regular season and that included opponents scoring three runs or less in 13 of his last 15 starts, which includes the bullpen. Boston is in a desperate situation, and if Schilling is not on top of his game, you can expect two innings each from Papelbon and Okijima, so the length of the AL’s top bullpen is going to be extended in this one, because of the elimination factor, and the fact that there is no game 7 if they don't win here. This game again fits a system we have for the playoffs that has hit 72% with over 100 plays in the database, so we will ride the UNDER.