Cleveland at Boston

This is what the MLB postseason is all about. We have the two teams that tied for the most wins squaring off in the ALCS at Fenway. The weather has finally turned to spring in the Northeast, and temperatures at game time should be in the 50s, dropping into the 40s by game’s end. One factor will be a persistent NNW wind which means blowing from right to left at Fenway. The pitching matchup could not get much better, as the top two Cy Young candidates square off with Beckett on the hill for the Sox and Sabathia for the Indians. We took a look at how these pitchers fared during the regular season against the top pitchers in baseball. Beckett matched up with Lackey, Kazmir, Wang, Halliday, Bedard, Carmona, Peavy, Hudson and Francis. The nine games totaled just 59 runs or just 6.55-runs per game (RPG)! We did the same thing for Sabathia to see how the games went when he was matched with another top pitcher. He squared off with Santana three times, Wang and Harang. The five games totaled just 35 runs, or seven per game. That is 14 top matchups with just 94 runs scored, or on average, just 6.7-rpg. That certainly ties in well with the fact that this game fits a most profitable ALCS system we have that has gone 86-32 to the UNDER in the history of the ALCS which is 72.9%! The 14 games from the above matchups have produced 11 that went under tonight's total of 8.5. Kazmir allowed just two runs, but the pen game up six, which shouldn't be the case tonight as both pens are at the top of the league and well rested. Cleveland is also 19-7 in their last 26 on the road to the UNDER, and 12-2 with a posted total of 7-8.5. Beckett is 14-6 on the season over a team with a winning record to the UNDER, and five of Sabathia's last six starts against the Sox have produced unders. We will ride the tremendous value, and play the UNDER in this ALCS opener at the Fenz.