Cleveland at Boston

Diasuke Matsuzaka has certainly had his issues with health and location, but he is slowly getting back to the form that saw him win 18 games in 2008. His ERA resembles the 2.90 ERA he pitched to in that season as his last 68 innings show him at 3.04. Josh Tomlin is an unknown, but in his two starts he has held two pretty good lineups in check in the Yankees and Blue Jays, allowing just 1 run to each. The Tribe has topped the total just five times in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Matsuzaka is 16-5-1 to the UNDER in his last 22 starts vs. the AL Central, including four of five vs. the Indians. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.