Cincinnati at St. Louis

The Cincinnati Reds have fooled everyone by maintaining and extending their lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central. Bronson Arroyo has held opponents to 2 runs or less in 15 starts this season, having a very good year. Jaime Garcia continues to pitch well for the Cards with his stellar 2.33 ERA, but that hasn't translated well vs. the Reds this season who have touched him up for 9 runs in 17.2 innings. The Reds have lost by more than a single run in just four of Arroyo's last 23 starts which is just 17% of the time, putting a good amount of value with the Reds on the runline, which is my pick in this one.