Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is on a 2-5 slide and plays its fifth consecutive road contest. The offense is 16th in runs scored, 20th in on-base percentage, and 19th in slugging. Cincinnati is on an 8-1 run UNDER the total, plus 25-6 UNDER after three or more straight losses. Pittsburgh is on an 8-5 run after topping the Reds in the opener of this series, 4-1. The offense is just 22nd in runs scored and 25th in on-base percentage. They're on a 9-2 run UNDER the total and starter Bailey Falter has a 3.53 ERA at home where he's holding batters to a .218 average. The Pirates are 17-12 as an underdog of +150 or less, so back the home dog in a pitcher's duel. Play Pittsburgh + UNDER the total.