Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The first two games in this series have totaled 3 runs. In the finale, I expect a similar result. Neither of these offenses have much bite and they are facing two scary starters. Johnny Cueto owns a 2.01 ERA on the season while Jeff Karstens comes in with a 2.34 ERA (1.90 at home and 1.17 over his last three starts). While the Reds' bullpen is average, Pittsburgh's is excellent (2.56 home ERA). Over the past two seasons, the Pirates are 25-12 UNDER when facing a starting pitcher that throws 6.5+ innings per start (Cueto goes 6.9 on average). Pittsburgh is also 15-5 UNDER this season after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less. Finally, they are a perfect 9-0 UNDER this season following a game in which they had under 5 hits. Take the UNDER here.