Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Aaron Harang has been the one bright spot for Cincinnati. Harang has posted a 1.88 ERA covering his last five starts. He has had an amazing start but hasn't gotten the recognition he deserves because he is on a horrible team. The Reds are 18-43 .295 in games not started by Harang. To put that in perspective that converts to 47-115 for a complete season. They are 11-5 .688 when he starts, which converts to 111-51 over a full season. A completely different team as you can see. Harang has turned into a true stopper and he is 8-3 in his last 11 starts after a Reds loss. When the Reds are a dog, he is 10-1 in his last 11 starts in that role. The Phillies will counter with Jamie Moyer who has been a serviceable pitcher, even as he approaches his 45th birthday. It is going to be extremely hot in Philly tonight, and we think that may have more impact on Moyer than Harang. Hard to argue with the numbers as Cincy wins 68% of the time with Harang on the hill. We like the odds here.