Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Philadelphia has scored 28 runs its last three games, including a 20-1 rout of the Marlins on Saturday. The Phillies come off a 6-3 loss on Sunday, which went OVER by a run when Jake Arrieta lasted just four innings in his Philly debut. Ben Lively goes for the Phillies tonight, and he allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings his first start at the New York Mets. Lively was 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 2017 and didn't face the Reds. Cody Reed makes his first appearance for Cincinnati this season, and he has a 1-8 career record with a 6.75 ERA. The OVER is 9-1-1 in Reed's last 11 starts overall and 6-0 OVER his last six road starts. The Phillies are also 6-1-2 OVER their last nine against an opponent that allowed at least five runs its previous game dating to last season. And the OVER is 16-7-1 the last 24 meetings at Philadelphia. Play the OVER.