Cincinnati at New York

Cincinnati plays its fourth straight road game after an 8-2 loss at Detroit. They're on a 5-5 run with two of the victories by just one run. The Reds have Hunter Greene (4.43 ERA) on the mound with the team 7-11 in his 18 starts. The Reds are 55-87 versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .315 or less, plus 4-19 when Greene goes in night games. They're also on a 25-13 run UNDER the total, 42-24 UNDER in the second half of the season, and 17-8 UNDER after allowing eight or more runs. New York's offense is 20th in runs scored, plus 18th in slugging and on-base percentage on an 80-61 UNDER the total, including 44-26 UNDER at home. New York plays its fifth consecutive home contest and is playing better winning four of five with the only loss by one run. Starter David Peterson has a 3.18 ERA at home and the Mets are 63-47 versus NL teams averaging 4.5+ runs per game. The wagering value is on the home team to win the game or lose by one run in a defensive battle. Take New York on the runline + UNDER the total.