Cincinnati at Milwaukee

The overall numbers for Yovani Gallardo don't look impressive, but read on. Gallardo has been victimized by the St. Louis Cardinals, as they seem to be his nemesis. This is a quality pitcher that when standing on the mound at home has been all but unhittable, with the exception being the Cardinals. His last 11 home starts, dating all the way back to late June of last season, has seen him allow a grand total of 11 runs in 11 starts outside of vs. the Cardinals. He has not allowed more than 2 runs to anyone else over the period. That positions this one to play UNDER the total with a lot of wiggle room, especially working against Bronson Arroyo who has found the groove allowing just 7 runs in his last four starts. The Reds are now 23-8-3 to the UNDER behind Arroyo if they scored 5+ in their previous game. Play the UNDER.