Cincinnati at Milwaukee

The Cincinnati Reds have played well and had the lead in the NL Central for a bit, but Milwaukee has now claimed top spot by a half-game. This is a big series which is even at one game apiece. The winner of this afternoon's game will win the series and find themselves in first place in the NL Central. Freddy Peralta has been horrible on the road where the Brewers are 2-6 in his eight road starts, but it has been a different story at home where they are 7-4. Ben Lively will take the ball for Cincinnati, and the Reds have a 5-5 record in his 10 starts, but opponents are generating an average of five runs per contest in his 10 starts. The Brewers have been 11-6 in their last 17 at home against the Reds. I like Milwaukee in this one.