Cincinnati at Miami

Johny Cueto has had a big year for Cincinnati, but down the stretch the innings may be causing some fatigue. He has not been as sharp as he was earlier in the season where he seemed to dominate almost every start. The Reds are just 3-4 in his last seven starts, and he has allowed 4 runs in each of the last two. He certainly gets more notice than Mark Buehrle, but most don't realize that Buehrle has been the best home pitcher in baseball over the last nine years. Buehrle has produced a 101-54 mark, returning over 12% ROI in his last 155 home starts. That rises to just shy of a 20% ROI when he takes the mound as a home dog. The Marlins are also 5-1 when Buehrle takes the mound if he pitched a quality start in his last outing. Play on Miami.