Cincinnati at Miami

Potential has a way of holding lines down and Johny Cueto has been instrumental in doing just that. He opened the season with a one-run 10-strikeout performance and has been inside the oddsmakers heads since. What has followed is much less than ordinary. Cueto has worked 61.2 innings since that first start allowing 68 hits, and 13 HR's as well as posting an ERA of nearly six runs a game. The Reds have only won 10 of 32 road games and more importantly are 0-5 with Cueto towing the rubber on the road. Andrew Miller had a nine ERA through April, but has since settled down nicely pitching to a 2.65 ERA with nine less hits allowed to innings pitched. This line is subject to the Cueto factor and is much too low. The value here is on the Marlins.