Cincinnati at Chicago

The World Champion Chicago Cubs are certainly not looking the same this season. The pitching has been a disappointment, and the bats less productive than last year. Wrigley Field often sees jacked up totals in part, like Colorado, as favorable winds tend to produce higher-scoring games. In this case, I think it is overdone. Cubs games are seeing more runs scored this season over last at home. Last year, Cubs' home games generated a total of 7.61 runs per game. This year that number sits at 9.19, or better than 1.5 runs more per contest. That being said, the total here is 12, or close to three runs more than have been generated this season, and just 3 of the 16 played here have produced more than 12 runs. This one is overdone in terms of the total, so make the play on the UNDER.