Cincinnati at Chicago

Johnny Cueto makes his 2011 debut here for the Reds. He faces a Cubs lineup that manages just 3.8 runs per game at home (3.6 vs. RHP). Ryan Dempster has struggled but he's better than he's performed thus far. Over the past couple of seasons, the Cubs are 62-43 UNDER to a total set under 9. Over the past three seasons, Chicago is 62-37 UNDER after allowing 2 runs or less. I like this game to go UNDER the total.