Cincinnati at Chicago

Cincinnati is a terrible road team and has lost six in a row to the Cubs this season. Its offense is #18 in runs scored and #17 in on base percentage. Johnny Cueto has been great at home but is 2-3 on the road with a 3.83 ERA - three times as many runs allowed on the road than at home. The Reds are 24-50 as an underdog and 2-5 in Cueto's last seven road starts. The Cubs have scored at least five runs in each of their five victories against the Reds and have put up 18 in two straight wins. Starter Jason Hammel (5-2, 2.76 ERA) has recorded quality starts in seven of his last eight outings and has won two straight starts. He has an incredible 76-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Cubs are 8-3 as a home favorite while the Reds are 1-6 at Wrigley Field. Take the Cubbies in this one.