Cincinnati at Chicago

The Cubs have been good at home all year, but Ryan Dempster is coming back to Earth after a huge start. Dempster and the Cubs have managed just two wins by more than a run in his last seven starts while all previous wins were by 2+ runs. The Reds have Aaron Harang on the mound who has struggled this year when looking back at last year where he dominated. The capacity to throw 0's at the Cubs is there on any given night. The Reds fit a nice situation here as well. Teams that are +1.5 on the runline with a pitcher that has an ERA between 4.2-4.7, against an opponent with a starting pitcher that gives up under six hits per game have gone 204-137 good for +62.1 units over the last 10 years. We will back the Reds on the runline here. We also like the UNDER in this one especially with the Cubs scoring dropping off so dramatically lately. We like Dempster to keep the Cubs down given his 2.71 ERA and 9-0 lifetime mark at Wrigley.