Cincinnati at Chicago

What would the Reds be without Aaron Harang? They have gone 32-61 (.344) in games in which he hasn't started, which projects to a 55-107 season. When he starts they are the best team in baseball, as they are 18-6 .750, or 122-40 over 162 games. That includes a loss in a game he left in the first inning with back stiffness. The Reds have won his last 10 starts otherwise. The Cubs have gone from one of the hottest teams to one of the coldest, as they stand just 3-8 in their last 11 games with seven of those games posting 3 runs or less. Carlos Zambrano had been the hottest pitcher in baseball, but has suddenly lost the plate and his dominance as well. Zambrano has walked 10 in his last 10 innings and those control issues have led to 20 baserunners in his last 10 innings. Zambrano went 11 straight starts without allowing more than 8 baserunners but he has allowed 9 or more in his last two. Harang has won duels with Capuano, Smoltz, Maine, Zito and Sabathia and already is 2-0 vs. Zambrano this season. We will take a pitcher that has led his team to an 18-6 mark as a dog every time, and we have been on Harang through most of this streak.