Cincinnati at Chicago

These teams were not supposed to contend this season, but here we are after the trade deadline, Cincinnati leads the weak NL Central division, and the Cubs are just four games out. The Reds have had several hot streaks which have brought them to the top, but outside of those streaks things aren't going so well. I think the Cubs' 20-9 blowout win last night is going to have Cincinnati coming out focused to erase an embarrassing loss. Cincinnati has been one of the best road teams in the league at 31-24 and when you enhance that to include one-run road losses they are 42-13 if the line was +1.5. A team that scores 20 runs or more in their previous game has a -17.3% ROI in their next game, and it gets worse on the run line. I like Cincinnati on the run line.