Cincinnati at Chicago

Cincinnati is a big favorite, but the Reds are 3-6 on the road, a problem last year too. Cincinnati ranks No. 17 in baseball in team ERA with only two saves and opponents hit .257 off them (No. 19). The offense has been even worse at No. 27 in runs scored, No. 26 in OBP and No. 25 in batting average and slugging. The Reds were favored yesterday, but lost in this park 6-1, and today ends a brutal 10-game road trip! They are 3-6 on the trip and face a Cubs team playing its third straight home game. The Reds are 2-5 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter and face Randy Wells, his first start of the year. He was 7-6 with the Cubs last season and is 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA against the erratic Reds, walking only 15 in 55 innings against them (56 hits allowed, 30 strikeouts). The Cubs are 4-1 in Wells' last five starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Play the Cubs.