Chicago at Pittsburgh

We nailed the Pirates last night as a +127 underdog. We noted yesterday that this is actually a winning home team that scores pretty well at home. The fact that Zambrano was starting was overvalued by the public as he wasn't a factor late when the Chicago bullpen gave away the game. The Cubs are a poor road team (27-42) and they score just 4.1 per game away from home. They score just 4.0 overall in night games. Tonight the Pirates go for the sweep and I think they get it. The starting pitching matchup is unremarkable. Juan Mateo is inexperienced (just 5 games and 24 innings pitched). He's got a losing record. Victor Santos goes for Pittsburgh and he's been slightly below average. But again here we go with offense and records. Pittsburgh is a decent home team. They are 23-15 at home vs. teams allowing 4.8+ runs per game. The Cubs this season are 23-41 as an underdog of +100 to +150. Pittsburgh is on a bit of a roll while Chicago has lost 9 of 10. Go with the better team at home vs. the slumping Cubs.