Chicago at Milwaukee

Chicago has had a rough week still having trouble scoring ranked #23 in runs. Chicago is 13-3 UNDER the total during game one of a series, plus 15-7-1 UNDER against a right-handed starter. At least they have an ace going today with Jake Arrieta (11-6, 2.61 ERA), posting seven consecutive quality starts. He has been outstanding on the road, going 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 10 starts. The UNDER is 16-4-2 when Arrieta faces a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is no offensive powerhouse at #24 in baseball in on-base percentage, on a 5-0-1 run UNDER the total. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA over his last six starts. Earlier in the season against the Cubs Nelson notched a career-high 11 strikeouts over seven innings. The UNDER is 26-12-2 when the Brewers face a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and when these teams clash the UNDER is 6-2, so don't look for many runs. Play this one UNDER the total.