Chicago at Milwaukee

Chicago has had a rough week still having trouble scoring ranked 23rd in runs. Chicago is 13-3 UNDER the total during game 1 of a series, plus 15-7-1 UNDER against a right-handed starter. At least they have an ace going today with Jake Arrieta (11-6, 2.61 ERA), posting seven consecutive quality starts. He has been outstanding on the road, with a 2.14 ERA in 10 starts. The UNDER is 16-4-2 when Arrieta faces a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is no offensive powerhouse, 24th in baseball in on-base percentage, on a 5-0-1 run UNDER the total, but they are winning games, especially at home. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA over his last six starts. Earlier in the season against the Cubs, Nelson notched a career-high 11 strikeouts over seven innings. The Cubs are just 3-7 vs. a right-handed starter. Nelson has increased his arsenal this season and is now using a curveball along with his slider, two-seam fastball, and four-seam fastball. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six home games, while the Cubs are 10-29 in the last 39 meetings in Milwaukee. In addition, the UNDER is 26-12-2 when the Brewers face a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and when these teams clash the UNDER is 6-2, so grab home field and don't look for many runs. Take Milwaukee and play the UNDER.