Zambrano is tough to fade, I know. But here we get a home underdog vs. a team that has trouble scoring. The Cubs have managed just 5 toal runs over their past three games. Over their past thirteen games, they have scored 3 or less seven times. The Reds can put up runs at home where they average 5.0 per game. If they can get 3+ today they have a good shot at winning. Kyle Lohse is struggling but the Cubs are still just 12-21 the past two seasons vs. a pitcher with an ERA over 5.70. And the Cubs are just 36-48 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over that same time span. Reds here.