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Chicago at Arizona

October 3, 2007
img10:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host game one tonight against the Chicago Cubs. The D-Backs were outscored on the season, finished dead last in team batting average yet here they are. The Cubs have not hung a banner in nearly a century, so they will have an opportunity to finally get it done. Brandon Webb put on a performance this season that was extraordinary. He pitched 42 consecutive scoreless innings, and three complete game shutouts in the process. The three complete games may be the issue here, as Webb pitched just one other complete game all season. He has been very ordinary since then and since the streak. He has followed by pitching 51.2 innings and has a 4.35 ERA. Webb did not complete one single game in 2005, and in last season's Cy Young campaign, he pitched consecutive complete games, had 25 straight scoreless innings over three starts, and followed by working 33.2 innings and a 5.08 ERA. He also pitched two consecutive complete games late in the season, and followed with 19 innings over three starts and a 5.21 ERA. It certainly appears that the extra innings have worked against Webb, throughout his career. His counterpart, Carlos Zambrano, has had a strange year. The Cubs were 4-6 in his first 10 starts, followed by 10-3. They then went 0-6, followed by 4-1. He will face a D-Backs lineup that is much better at home, hitting close to .270 and scoring almost a run a game more. Zambrano may be uncomfortable, as he has not toed the rubber in Arizona for nearly three years, and he has displayed streaks of wildness, as he has walked over 100 batters on the season. Arizona also likes to run, and have been successful 82% of the time. The D-Backs also like to play little ball, with 58 sacrifices on the season. We also have an eight-year trend that fits this game situation that has produced OVER in 67% of the time since 1999. We will ride the OVER here.

2 units on Game Total OVER -105 -105 (risk 2 to return 2)
Result:
LOSS
1
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9
R
Chicago Cubs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Arizona Diamondbacks
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
odds odds
 
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