Boston at Tampa Bay

The Red Sox are really feeling the pressure from the Yankees. A runaway lead of 14.5 games has a flashback to '78, when the Sox crashed and burned after leading by 14.5 as well. The Sox have managed just eight runs in their last four games, and the lineup is not what it could be due to injuries. Ramirez, Youkilis and Crisp remain sidelined with injuries and the bullpen is short as well. The Sox shut down Okijima and Gagne has imploded with every critical game he has pitched, and even Papelbon gave it up against the Yankees and was touched off by a grand slam to Russ Adams in Toronto. Beckett has had a very good season, but even with that the Sox are just 11-8 over his last 19 starts. Scott Kazmir simply keeps the D-rays in every game, and they are 19-11 in his last 30 starts. Kazmir has been at his best over his last two starts giving up no earned runs while striking out 21 including a seven-inning zero run effort at Fenway. Kazmir has led the D-Rays to a 10-6 record after a loss as well. The D-Rays are 10-4 in his last 14 starts as an underdog, and 7-1 when the posted line is +130 or higher. We like the value in this one and will back the D-Rays.