Boston at Philadelphia

The Red Sox today face Roy Halladay. Boston is averaging just 4.6 runs per game this season vs. RHP. The bad news for them is this is no ordinary right-hander. Halladay is 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA (1.36 at home). When facing a pitcher with good control (1.75 walks per game or less), the Sox are 24-11 UNDER the past two seasons. When facing a starter that goes over six innings per start, Boston is 30-12 UNDER over the same span. And, when on the road vs. a pitcher that strikes out 5+ batters per game, the Red Sox are 18-5 UNDER the past two seasons! The runs won't come easy for the Sawx today. Philadelphia's offense is also potent, but they actually score less at home then on the road. And, their offense has been struggling of late (4.0 per game in their last seven games and 2.5 per game in interleague play). I like this one to go UNDER the total.