Boston at New York

It hasn't happened in 24 years. But today could be the day the Yankees get a four-game home sweep over the Red Sox. Yesterday's 5-0 win gave New York a 5.5 game lead over their rival in the AL East. Boston had the upper hand going into this series having won all eight prior games this season. But New York has gone a long way towards easing that pain with their play in this series. The Red Sox, despite a 62-47 overall record, just aren't good on the road this season where they are 27-30. New York is 38-17 at home where they average 5.6 runs per game (vs. 4.6 per game for Boston on the road). Both Lester and Pettitte own winning records on the season and both have been hot of late. Lester has posted a 3.32 ERA his last three starts while Pettitte has done better at 2.79. The pitching matchup is roughly a wash here so it's likely to come down to offense and right now New York's is much hotter. Boston is just 18-30 vs. the run line this season after back-to-back road games. They have also lost eight straight vs. the run line when facing a winning team. I like the value here on the Yankees -1.5 runs.