Boston at Kansas City

Boston is hobbled and it's showing. Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz are out and Jacoby Ellsbury sat out Saturday's loss to the Royals. The result? Boston has lost five of their last eight games, averaging close to 3 runs per game. This line is based on Jon Lester who has been excellent this season. But, right now Boston's offense is suspect so asking them to win by 2+ runs on the road I think is asking a lot. Kansas City is 38-31 at home this season to the runline and 24-14 in day games. Meanwhile, Boston owns a losing record on the road vs. the runline. Over the past three seasons, KC is 75-51 at home vs. the runline when facing a winning team. And, this season, the Royals are 9-1 vs. the runline at home when playing with confidence (scored 8+ runs last game). I like KC here.