Boston at Cleveland

We have watched these two teams pile up the runs so far in the post-season. The Indians have played six games that have produced 72 runs (12 per game). In the five Red Sox games we have seen 55 total runs (11 per game). Tonight we get away from the top of the rotations, where you'd expect even more. But we have a different opinion. The Red Sox have played 18 road games against .500+ teams, without the top of the rotation on the mound (Beckett or Schilling). They are 5-13 in these games, producing just 4 runs per game. In 10 of those 18 games, less than 10 total runs were scored. The Indians have played 17 home games vs .500+ teams without the top of the rotation on the mound (Sabathia or Carmona). They have gone 7-11 in those games. In 11 of 18, less than 10 runs were scored. Jake Westbrook has made 14 home starts, and in 11 of the 14 (78.6%), less than 10 runs were scored. Diasuke Matsusaka has made 18 road starts. In 11 of the 18, less than 10 runs were scored. And, in 7 of 10 vs .500+ teams, less than 10 runs were scored. It must be remebered that both these teams are backed by top bullpens, so if and when the starter gets in trouble, they are bringing in a competent replacement. Boston as a team has been 28-14 to the UNDER this season on the road when matched against a .500+ opponent. They are also 35-18 UNDER on the road vs. a RHP. The Red Sox are 12-3 UNDER this season on the road following a big loss (by 6+ runs). In games with Westbrook starting, the Indians are 17-8 UNDER including 11-3 UNDER at home. Finally, we have a playoff tested totals system that is live for this game. It has won at a rate of 71%, and covers well over 100 games in the system. It calls for the UNDER, as we do as well.