Boston at Baltimore

Baltimore has lost ten in a row, but I like them to keep it close at a minimum here today. When teams are this bad, and on this bad of a run, the linesmakers start shading the lines and the value falls on the bad team. What better time to go contrarian than after a team has lost two games by a combined score of 19-2? The fact is that John Lackey has not been great this season. He's 2-2 on the road and owns a mediocre ERA. The Red Sox are 4-10 this season in day games so there is some vulnerability here. Over the past two seasons, the Sox are just 16-23 on the road the past two seasons vs. AL teams with a batting average of .265 or worse. Against the runline, Boston is 12-25 in their last 37 on the road after scoring 7+ runs. I am backing Baltimore plus the 1.5 runs.