Boston at Baltimore

The Red Sox offense has hit a bit of a rough spot as they have 2 runs or less in two of their last three games. Granted, those sandwiched a 15-run explosion, but the inconsistency is there right now. Meanwhile, the O's have quietly found some offense, scoring 6.4 per game over their last seven. They will likely struggle more than that today vs. southpaw Andrew Miller, but I think they get enough for the win. Baltimore took care of business yesterday and Boston is just 11-23 the past couple of seasons revenging a road favorite loss. They are also just 21-36 on the road the past three seasons after scoring 2 or less last game. I like the O's here. I also like the UNDER. This total is set very high and despite the pitching matches and offenses, games rarely top 11 runs in the MLB. Boston can score, but on the road this season, they are 26-20 to the UNDER. Baltimore has a similar record at home. Over the past two seasons, Baltimore is 94-68 UNDER vs. AL teams that hold opponents down (allowing 4.7 or less runs per game) and 34-20 UNDER vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 1+ runs per game. Over the past three seasons, the Red Sox are 23-8 UNDER on the road followoing a loss by 4+ runs. This season, they are 22-11 UNDER when playing their third straight road game. Take Baltimore and the UNDER here.