Boston at Baltimore

Boston has really struggled out of the gate, but they have turned things around right? Well, maybe not so much. Sure, they just swept Toronto, but the Jays own the worst record in the league. I am not sure if Boston is really to a point yet where they should be laying so much on the road. Baltimore has their issues, but tonight they have Hernandez on the mound and he has done well in his starts, including posting a 3.00 ERA in his lone home start this season. John Lackey has been mediocre at best, posting a 5.09 ERA on the season (6.88 in his last three starts). The Red Sox are just 11-20 since last season on the road vs. poor hitting teams like the O's (teams batting .265 or worse). I like the value fading Boston here. I also like the UNDER. Boston is 5-3 UNDER on the road this season and 17-5 UNDER since last season on the road after a game in which they scored 2 or fewer runs. Baltimore is 13-8 UNDER overall including 9-5 UNDER vs. RHP and 11-4 UNDER in night games.