Boston at Baltimore

The Red Sox have recovered from their awful start to the season but the fact remains that this team is 5-8 on the road, scoring 3.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has posted a 6.46 ERA on the road. That's not the kind of team you want to back as a big road favorite. Boston is, in fact, just 3-9 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175. Over the past three seasons, they are 6-16 on the road after scoring 1 or fewer runs last game. Even with Josh Beckett on the mound, the Sox haven't been able to produce road wins as they are 2-8 as a favorite of -125 to -175 with Beckett toeing the rubber. The Orioles are decent at home and have produced a .500 record vs. RHP and vs. division foes. I like Baltimore for the upset win.