Boston at Atlanta

Tim Wakefield just keeps getting it done for the Red Sox and leads them in wins with nine on the season. He almost always pitches deep into games, and allows the Sox’ top-ranked bullpen to close the game or hold a team down from when he exits. Javier Vasquez has pitched well of late, but his success against the Red Sox has not been great as he has a career 2-6 mark against them. Boston has lost just 28 times on the season while winning 45. That in itself is a 62% winning advantage. They have dropped nine of their 28 losses by one run, making them 54-19 to a would-be +1.5 runline, or a winner 74% of the time. Factor in their 50-14 mark in interleague games against a right-hand pitcher, and the +1.5 looks like it is loaded with value. Wakefield has also turned in a 7-0 mark in his last seven starts against the National League East, and the Braves are 6-20 in their last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. I'm on the runline with Boston.