Boston at Atlanta

John Smoltz as a home underdog - I'll take that. Smoltz has a 2.91 ERA at home this season going 7.7 innings per start. Yes, this is the Red Sox with Curt Schilling but Schilling has been average on the road this season (4.25 ERA). And, Atlanta desparately wants to avoid the sweep at home here. The Bravosa re 26-13 as a small home underdog (+100 to +125) over the past decade. And, good offensive home teams (4.8+ runs/game) facing a better offensive road team (5.2+ runs/game) are 45-20 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. Boston is batting .262 and scoring just 3.7 runs per game over their last seven games. I like the home dog here.