Baltimore at Toronto

The starting pitcher matchup doesn't always decide a game but in this one it will. Roy Halladay starts for the Blue Jays who are 17-6 with him on the mound this season. He has been amazing at home (10-1 with 3.36 ERA) and he seems to be getting even better. In his last three starts he's gone 22 innings, striking out 19 while giving up just 4 walks. Jeremy Guthrie is the antithesis of Halladay recently. He started strong, but the rookie has gotten shelled in his last three starts (15 runs on 26 hits in just 14 total innings). The Blue Jays are a great home team. They score more here and play great defense here, on way to a 38-24 mark. Back to Halladay: he is 13-4 with a 3.13 lifetime ERA vs. the Orioles. With him on the mound, his team has won 26 of 30 vs. low scoring AL opponents (4.7 runs or less per game) over the past three seasons. Riding him here.